Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing applications for crypto and event-based trading. These platforms allow users to take positions on outcomes involving politics, cryptocurrency prices, sports, economic data, technology and other real-world events.
However, finding prediction markets available in Europe is not as simple as choosing a platform and connecting a wallet. Each operator maintains its own restricted-country list, while European countries apply different gambling, financial and consumer-protection laws.
A platform being accessible from a European country does not automatically mean that it is licensed or legally authorised there.
This guide compares four major prediction markets that European users may encounter in 2026:
- Polymarket
- Predict.fun
- Opinion
- Kalshi
The information below is based on the platforms’ published terms and geographic restrictions as of July 2026.
Important: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal, financial, investment, gambling or betting advice. Always check the platform’s current terms and the laws applying in your country.
Are Prediction Markets Available in Europe?
Yes, some prediction markets are accessible from selected European countries. There is no single availability rule covering the entire European Union or the wider European region.
Countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Poland are expressly restricted by all four platforms covered in this guide. Other countries, including Malta, Spain, Austria, Greece, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway, are not expressly named in the published restricted-country lists of these four platforms.
That does not necessarily mean all four services are legally approved in those countries. Their terms generally require users to verify that participation is permitted under local law.
Prediction Market Availability in Europe: Quick Comparison
| Platform | Type | European countries expressly restricted | European access summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Crypto prediction market | Belgium, Belarus, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Russia and the UK | Potentially accessible in other European countries, subject to local law |
| Predict.fun | BNB Chain prediction market | Belgium, France, Poland and the UK | Broad apparent European coverage outside restricted jurisdictions |
| Opinion | On-chain crypto prediction market | France, Poland and the UK | Available to eligible users outside its restricted-country list |
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange | Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Ukraine and the UK | International accounts supported, but many European countries are restricted |
The absence of a country from a platform’s restriction list should be interpreted only as an indication that the platform does not expressly prohibit that jurisdiction. It is not confirmation that the service holds a local licence.
1. Polymarket
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where users trade positions linked to real-world outcomes. Market prices can be interpreted as the crowd’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
For example, an outcome trading at $0.65 can be understood as the market assigning it an approximate probability of 65%, although prices can also be affected by liquidity, sentiment and trading activity.
Is Polymarket available in Europe?
Polymarket is available only in selected European countries.
Its official geographic restrictions page currently lists 33 completely restricted jurisdictions. The European countries on that list are:
- Belgium
- Belarus
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Poland
- Russia
- United Kingdom
Polymarket also states that users must not use VPNs or similar tools to bypass its geographic restrictions.
Countries such as Malta, Spain, Austria, Ireland, Greece, Cyprus and several Nordic countries are not included in Polymarket’s published block list at the time of writing. However, users must still determine whether participation is permitted under their domestic laws.
Polymarket advantages
Polymarket covers a broad selection of markets, including politics, crypto, technology, economics, sports and global events. Its market-based pricing also makes it useful as a source of real-time sentiment.
Polymarket limitations
The platform is unavailable in several of Europe’s largest markets, including Germany, France, Italy and the UK. Cryptocurrency transactions also introduce wallet, network, stablecoin and smart-contract risks.
Availability verdict: Suitable only for users in European countries that are not geoblocked and where local law permits participation.
2. Predict.fun
Predict.fun is an on-chain prediction platform built around smart contracts deployed on BNB Chain. Users interact through self-hosted wallets and remain responsible for initiating their own blockchain transactions.
The platform’s terms state that it does not act as a custodian, broker or intermediary. Users maintain control of their wallets, but blockchain transactions generally cannot be reversed.
Is Predict.fun available in Europe?
Predict.fun expressly prohibits trading by users who reside in, are located in or operate from several restricted jurisdictions.
Its published terms identify the following European restrictions:
- Belgium
- France
- Poland
- United Kingdom
The restrictions also cover the United States, Australia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Ontario and sanctioned territories. VPNs and other tools designed to bypass the restrictions are prohibited.
European countries such as Malta, Spain, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Austria and the Nordic countries are not expressly named in the current restricted-jurisdiction list.
Predict.fun nevertheless requires users to comply with all applicable laws and to avoid using the service where prediction contracts are prohibited.
Predict.fun advantages
Predict.fun may appeal to crypto-native users who prefer self-custody and BNB Chain. Its wallet-based structure removes the need to deposit cryptocurrency with a conventional centralised operator.
Predict.fun limitations
Self-custody transfers responsibility for wallet security, private keys and transaction accuracy to the user. Its terms warn about smart-contract vulnerabilities, phishing, network failures, crypto volatility and irreversible transactions. Users can lose the full amount committed to a contract.
Availability verdict: One of the broader options for European crypto users, although access is prohibited in Belgium, France, Poland and the UK.
3. Opinion
Opinion is another crypto-based platform offering markets around future events. Users can stake cryptocurrency on possible outcomes, while market resolution depends on external data and oracle sources.
Opinion’s terms describe these positions as wagers involving cryptocurrency with real value. They also warn that transactions may be final and that users could lose their entire supplied amount.
Is Opinion available in Europe?
Opinion’s official terms currently identify the following European restricted jurisdictions:
- France
- Poland
- United Kingdom
The list also includes the United States, Singapore, Thailand, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Ontario and sanctioned territories. Users must not use VPNs to circumvent geographic controls.
Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, Malta, Portugal and most other European countries are not expressly included in Opinion’s published restricted-country list.
However, the terms make it clear that users must comply with local regulations. Access should not be interpreted as confirmation that Opinion is licensed as a gambling, trading or financial platform in a particular European country.
Opinion advantages
Opinion offers a wallet-based alternative to Polymarket and may be accessible in European countries where some larger competitors are restricted.
It also supports markets based on objectively verifiable outcomes and uses third-party data sources for resolution.
Opinion limitations
The platform is experimental and exposes users to crypto, oracle, liquidity and smart-contract risks. Opinion also states that it does not guarantee the accuracy of oracle sources or accept responsibility for market-resolution disputes.
Availability verdict: A possible Polymarket alternative for eligible European users, particularly in countries not included in its relatively limited European restriction list.
4. Kalshi
Kalshi operates differently from most crypto-native prediction markets. It is a US event-contract exchange designated and regulated as a contract market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kalshi offers contracts linked to real-world events and requires account holders to complete identity verification.
Is Kalshi available in Europe?
Kalshi supports international accounts, but its current Member Agreement restricts event-contract trading in several European jurisdictions:
- Belgium
- Bulgaria
- France
- Hungary
- Ireland
- Italy
- Monaco
- Poland
- Portugal
- Switzerland
- Ukraine
- United Kingdom
Kalshi reserves the right to approve, deny, limit or revoke access even when a user’s country is not expressly restricted. Users are also responsible for ensuring that event-contract trading is lawful in their location.
International users must verify their identity and country of residence. Available funding methods may include debit cards, wire transfers and cryptocurrency, depending on the region. ACH transfers, PayPal and Venmo are not available to international users.
Kalshi advantages
Kalshi is the only platform in this comparison operating as a CFTC-designated contract market. It may therefore appeal to users who prefer a conventional account structure, identity verification and formal US regulatory oversight.
Kalshi limitations
Its European availability is fragmented. Residents of Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, Belgium and several other European countries cannot trade event contracts under the current Member Agreement.
CFTC regulation in the United States also does not constitute authorisation from European gambling or financial regulators.
Availability verdict: A regulated international option with strong account controls, but one of the most restrictive platforms for European users.
Which Prediction Markets Have the Broadest European Availability?
Based only on the operators’ published restriction lists, Predict.fun and Opinion appear to offer the broadest European coverage among the four platforms reviewed.
Polymarket restricts several major European markets, including Germany and Italy. Kalshi restricts an even larger selection of European countries, including Ireland, Portugal, Switzerland, Bulgaria and Hungary.
The comparison can be summarised as follows:
| Country | Polymarket | Predict.fun | Opinion | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted |
| Spain | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted |
| Germany | Restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted |
| Italy | Restricted | Not expressly restricted | Not expressly restricted | Restricted |
| Belgium | Restricted | Restricted | Not expressly restricted | Restricted |
| France | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| Poland | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| United Kingdom | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
This table reflects platform terms, not a legal assessment of each country.
Does Website Access Mean a Prediction Market Is Legal?
No. Three separate questions should be considered:
1. Does the platform allow your country?
The operator may block specific countries based on its internal compliance policy, sanctions rules or regulatory risk.
2. Can you create and verify an account?
Centralised services may require identity documents, proof of residence and a supported phone number. Crypto platforms may instead apply wallet or IP-based geofencing.
3. Is participation permitted by local law?
A platform can be technically accessible without holding a local gambling, betting or financial-services licence. Users remain responsible for following the laws in their country.
A European resident should therefore avoid treating “not restricted” as equivalent to “licensed and regulated locally.”
Risks European Prediction-Market Users Should Consider
Prediction markets involve more than simply predicting whether an event will happen.
Regulatory risk
Availability can change quickly following new laws, regulatory action or changes to a platform’s compliance policy. A previously supported country may be added to a restriction list without much notice.
Financial risk
A position can lose its entire value when the selected outcome does not occur. Prediction contracts should not be treated as guaranteed investments or savings products.
Liquidity risk
Smaller markets may have wide spreads or limited trading activity. A user may be unable to exit a position at the expected price.
Resolution risk
Each market has specific rules explaining which source determines the result. Ambiguous wording, delayed data or disputed outcomes can affect settlement.
Crypto and wallet risk
On-chain platforms expose users to private-key theft, phishing, smart-contract exploits, network fees, stablecoin volatility and irreversible transfers.
Tax obligations
Profits may be treated differently depending on the country and whether the activity is classified as gambling, investing, trading or miscellaneous income. Users should obtain qualified tax advice where necessary.
Final Verdict
Prediction markets are available in parts of Europe, but there is no platform that can be described as universally available across the continent.
Predict.fun and Opinion currently have the shortest published lists of European restrictions. They may therefore provide the broadest apparent access for eligible crypto users.
Polymarket offers a well-developed crypto prediction-market experience but blocks users in major countries such as Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland and the UK.
Kalshi provides a formally regulated US event-contract exchange and supports international accounts, but it restricts trading in a significant number of European jurisdictions.
